Think you’d spot a scammer in seconds? New research from Kenya reveals a shocking truth: scam education might actually make you more vulnerable. Discover the psychology of fraud, why official messages are tricking you, and the 5-step action plan to protect your wealth today.
You
sit there, scrolling through your phone, and you see it. A text message. Maybe
it’s your bank. Maybe it’s a prize you never entered. The grammar is slightly
off, the link looks weird, and your gut—that primal instinct for survival—sends
a jolt of electricity up your spine. You think to yourself, “I’d never fall for
that. I’m too smart.”
Stop
right there.
That
confidence you feel? That little smirk of superiority? It might just be the
very thing that ruins you.
We
live in a world where the line between a legitimate bank alert and a
sophisticated heist is thinner than the glass on your phone screen. In Kenya,
where mobile money is the lifeblood of the economy, a team of
researchers—Kubilay, Raiber, Spantig, and others—decided to test the average
person’s ability to spot a scam. They didn’t just ask people if they felt safe.
They put them in the line of fire. They showed them real messages. And what
they found should make you put down your coffee and pay attention.
Their
study, titled "Can you spot a scam? Measuring and improving scam
identification ability," isn't just another academic paper gathering
dust in a library. It’s a mirror. And when you look into it, you’ll realize
that the reflection staring back at you isn't a savvy financial genius. It
might just be a mark.
The
researchers set out to answer a simple, terrifying question: If we give people
the "rules" to spot fraud, do they actually get better at protecting
themselves? The answer is a punch to the gut. It’s a "no" wrapped in
a paradox. And understanding that paradox is the only way you’re going to keep
your money safe in the digital jungle.
Table
1: The Illusion of Safety
|
How You Feel | The Reality (Based on Research) |
|
"I’m too smart to be tricked." | Education often fails the less
experienced; confidence increases without ability. |
|
"I know the warning signs." | Official messages use the same signs,
making you misclassify legitimate alerts. |
|
"I’ll just ignore anything suspicious." | You risk missing vital info
from your bank, employer, or health services. |
|
"Scammers only target the elderly." | In Kenya, 68% of
university-educated users reported attempts—they're targeting YOU. |
Let’s
tear down the walls of your complacency. Let’s look at the machinery of
deception.
The Trap of "Knowing": Why
Education Backfires
We’ve
all been taught the rules. Don’t share your PIN. Watch for typos. Be wary of
unknown senders. These are the mantras of the modern age. The researchers in
this study condensed these common tips into a neat infographic—the kind you’ve
seen a thousand times on social media or billboards. They showed it to half of
their participants. They armed them with knowledge.
And
then the wheels came off.
You
would think that giving someone a sword would help them win a fight. But in
this case, the sword was double-edged. The study found that on average, the
tips did not improve the participants’ overall ability to distinguish scams
from genuine messages. Zero effect. Nada.
Let
that sink in for a second. All those PSAs, all those warnings from your
bank—they might be doing absolutely nothing to help you. But it gets worse.
The
tips did change behaviour. They made people more likely to correctly identify a
scam. Great, right? Hold that thought. Because at the exact same time, it made
them less likely to correctly identify a genuine message. They started seeing
ghosts. A real text from Safaricom about your data balance? Scam. A legitimate
alert from your bank about a transaction? Fraud.
The
researchers call this "overcaution." I call it paranoia poisoning the
well. You are so afraid of the wolf that you shoot the sheepdog. And when you
shoot the sheepdog, you’re alone in the dark.
It’s
like the boy who cried wolf, in reverse.
Imagine
a village where wolves sometimes dress up as sheep. The village elder gives you
a tip: "If it looks like a sheep, it might be a wolf." So, you start
seeing wolves everywhere. You kill the real sheep to protect yourself. Now, you
have no wool, no food, and the wolves are still out there. That’s the financial
reality for millions of people right now.
The "Scam Marker" Paradox: Why
Your Bank is Making You Vulnerable
Here
is where the research gets surgical. The team analysed the messages at a
granular level. They looked for messages containing "scam
markers"—those red flags like typos, shortened links, or requests for
info.
You’d
assume these markers are a surefire way to spot a crook. But in the real world,
banks and telecom companies are clumsy. They send out official messages with
shortened links because they’re tracking clicks. They send messages with
awkward phrasing because they’re translated from another language. They
accidentally create the very environment of suspicion that scammers thrive in.
The
study found that when a genuine message contained a scam marker, the likelihood
of it being misclassified as a scam skyrocketed after people received the
"education" tips. You are being trained to distrust the very
institutions that are supposed to protect you.
This
is the psychological warfare scammers are waging. They aren't just trying to
trick you; they are trying to pollute the entire communication channel. They
want you to hang up on your bank. They want you to ignore that fraud alert
because "it’s probably just another scam." They want you isolated.
Imagine
you use M-Shwari, a popular mobile loan service in Kenya. You receive a text:
"M-SHWARI: Your loan of KES 5,000 is due tomorrow. Click bit.ly/paynow to
avoid late fees." You just read a blog post about "shortened links =
scam." You ignore it. You miss the payment. Your credit score drops. You
pay a late fee. You just lost money and reputation because you followed the
"rules" of scam prevention. The real criminal? The system that
created the confusion.
Confidence: The Silent Killer of Wealth
Let’s
talk about the most dangerous drug on the market: confidence.
After
receiving the scam tips, participants didn't just change their behaviour; they
felt better about their bad decisions. The study shows a significant increase
in confidence after the educational intervention, even though their actual
ability to tell truth from lie hadn't improved.
In
block one, people were uncertain. They guessed. In block two, after the tips,
they were certain. They were certain they were right—even when they were dead
wrong.
This
aligns with historical data on fraud victims. The McAlvanah et al. (2015) study
cited in the research correlates overconfidence with victimization. Why?
Because the cautious person double-checks. The confident person acts. If you
are 100% sure that a message is a scam, you hang up and move on. But what if
you’re wrong? What if that call was actually the fraud department trying to
stop a real transaction? Your confidence just closed the door on your saviour.
The
moral of the story is: Doubt is your shield. Certainty is the crack in the armour.
The moment you think you are immune to scams, you have already volunteered to
be a victim.
The Gender and Education Divide: Who is
Really at Risk?
The
data cuts deep into the demographics. It shows a brutal truth: the system is
not fair, and the tips don’t help the people who need them most.
Women
in the study had a 3-percentage point lower scam identification ability (SIA)
score than men. They were also less confident. This isn't about intelligence;
it's about exposure and the financial literacy gap documented globally by
Lusardi and Mitchell (2014).
People
who used a wider variety of Digital Financial Services (DFS) were better at
spotting scams. Practice matters. The more you interact with the system, the
better you understand its rhythm.
Education
is the kicker. The researchers found that the scam tips only worked for
participants with post-secondary education and high DFS experience. The
less-educated participants? They gained nothing from the tips.
So,
we have a scenario where the rich get richer and the smart get smarter. The
educational intervention widened the gap. It armed the already-armed and left
the vulnerable exposed in the open field. If you are new to mobile money, if
you are just getting your feet wet in the digital economy, the standard advice
floating around might as well be written in ancient Greek. You are left to fend
for yourself against wolves who have studied psychology, economics, and
linguistics.
The Illusion of Incentive: Why Money
Doesn't Make You Smarter
You
might be thinking, "Well, in real life, money is on the line. If my own
cash was at stake, I’d pay more attention." The researchers thought the
same thing. They randomly incentivized half the participants, paying them for
every correct classification.
The
result? Nothing. Incentives didn't improve scam identification ability.
This
shatters the myth that "skin in the game" fixes everything. It
suggests that scam susceptibility isn't just a lack of effort. It’s a cognitive
blind spot. It’s a wiring issue. When a scammer texts you, your brain doesn't
just process information; it processes fear, greed, and authority. A scammer
isn't asking you to read a sentence; they are asking you to enter a state of
heightened emotion. In that state, monetary logic goes out the window.
The 5-Step Action Plan: Building Your
Financial Immune System
So,
where does this leave you? If education is flawed, if confidence is a trap, and
if even money on the line doesn't sharpen your mind, how do you survive?
You
build a system. You don't rely on your brain in the heat of the moment; you
rely on habits forged in the cold light of discipline. Here is your action
plan.
1.
Institutionalize the "Cooling Off" Period
Scams
thrive on urgency. "Your account will be closed in 24 hours."
"You've won, but you must claim it now!" This is the amygdala hijack.
The
rule is: Never act on a financial request within the first hour. If a text asks
for money or info, close the app. Wait. Make a cup of coffee. Watch the sunset.
Then, and only then, contact the institution using a phone number you know is
real—not the one in the text.
If
a scammer asks for KES 5,000 and a cooling-off period saves you just once,
you’ve effectively earned a risk-free KES 5,000. That’s a 100% return on
investment for doing nothing.
2.
Kill the Link, Open the App
Shortened
links and URLs are the devil's playground. As the research shows, they appear
in scams and in real messages.
Therefore,
delete the message immediately and navigate to the service manually. Open your
Safari or Chrome browser and type "www.mybank.com" yourself. Open the
mobile banking app and look for the message in your official inbox.
Think
of links like hitchhikers. You wouldn't pick up a stranger on the road just
because they’re wearing a uniform. Don't let a digital stranger into your phone
just because the text looks official.
3.
Curate Your Paranoia
The
study proved that general tips make you see wolves everywhere. You need
targeted awareness, not blanket suspicion.
Identify
the top three ways you use money digitally (sending cash, paying bills, taking
loans). Focus your learning on how those specific services communicate. If your
bank never asks for your PIN, that’s a hard rule. But if they sometimes use
short codes, accept that reality.
4.
Embrace Humility (The "Check-In" Protocol)
The
research showed that the less experienced you are, the worse you do. If you are
new to this, you are a target.
To
be safe, find your "financial anchor." This is one person—a partner,
a friend, a trusted relative—who you promise to check with before any financial
decision over KES 1,000 that was initiated by a text or call. This isn't
weakness; this is strategy. It breaks the isolation scammers need.
A
real friend will roll their eyes at you for checking. A scammer will threaten
you for checking. Choose the eye roll over the empty bank account.
5.
Gamify the "Wrong" Decision
To
counter the overconfidence bias, play a mental game. When you classify a
message, force yourself to argue the opposite case. If you think it's a scam,
spend 30 seconds trying to prove it's real. If you think it's real, spend 30
seconds trying to prove it's a scam.
This
breaks the neural pathway of certainty. It forces your prefrontal cortex (the
thinking brain) to re-engage after your amygdala (the feeling brain) has
already jumped to a conclusion.
The Wealth Paradox: Why Peace of Mind is
the Only Real Currency
We
chase wealth for freedom. We want that house, that car, that security. But
wealth accumulated in a digital world is vulnerable to digital decay. You can
work 40 years, save diligently, and lose a significant portion in 40 seconds
because you clicked a link in a moment of panic.
The
researchers in Kenya highlighted a chilling statistic: 71% of self-employed
individuals reported limiting their use of Digital Financial Services due to
fear of fraud. They are literally cutting themselves off from the economy to
survive. The scammers aren't just stealing money; they are stealing
opportunity. They are stealing GDP. They are stealing peace.
True
wealth isn't the number in your account; it's the ability to sleep at night.
It’s the freedom to trust a message from your daughter without assuming it’s a
deepfake. It’s the power to engage with the modern world without flinching at
every vibration of your phone.
The
study by Kubilay et al. serves as a stark warning. We cannot educate our way
out of this problem with cute infographics. We cannot rely on our gut. We must
build walls. We must build habits. We must accept that our brains,
evolutionarily designed to spot a tiger in the bush, are woefully unequipped to
spot a phishing link in a text message.
Conclusion: The Vigil or the Victim
You
are standing at a crossroads. On one path lies the "confidence" of
ignorance—the belief that it won't happen to you, the casual click, the
irritated hang-up on a fraud investigator. That path leads to a ditch. It leads
to a frantic call to your bank at 2 AM, to the shame of explaining to your
family why the school fees are gone, to the cold realization that the money is
never coming back.
On
the other path lies the "vigil." It is the path of conscious effort.
It is the path of double-checking. It is the path of teaching your kids not
just how to save, but how to suspect. It is the path of admitting that you are
vulnerable, and because you know you are vulnerable, you are strong.
The
research is clear. The system is broken. The messages are confusing. The tips
are blunt instruments. But you are not a statistic. You are a human being with
the power of conscious thought, the ability to pause, and the will to build
systems that protect you from your own instincts.
Don't
just be the person who reads this article and nods along. Be the person who
acts.
Call
to Action:
I
challenge you right now. Open your phone. Look at your last five financial
texts. Don't delete them—verify them. Call the official number of the sender
(not the one in the text) and ask, "Did you send me this?" Do this
once a week. Make it a ritual. Turn security into a muscle.
The
scammers are counting on your passivity. They are counting on your confidence.
They are counting on you to be too busy to care.
Prove
them wrong.
Protect
your peace. Protect your wealth. And if you want to stay ahead of the curve,
come back to this space. We don’t just talk about money here; we talk about the
mind games played to take it from you. Subscribe, share, and stay vigilant.

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